Vuk Vukovic writes about the science of political polling
Vuk Vukovic, a departmental DPhil student in politics, has written an article for the New Scientist (3 November) calling for a more scientific approach to political polls.
When writing on telephone and online polling, Vuk says, “In both types of survey, pollsters try to compensate for biases, but the results of doing so can be dubious – as shown when four different pollsters gave four different results for the key swing state of Florida in the current US campaign based on the same data set. Furthermore, a recent study showed that the actual margin of error of a poll’s finding is about 7 per cent, instead of the typically reported 3 per cent. Not surprisingly, some critics argue that opinion polls are more art than science.”
The full article can be read here: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2111298-as-us-election-looms-time-is-ripe-for-a-new-science-of-polling/
You can read more about Vuk’s research here: http://www.vukvukovic.org/research.html