Event

Shifting support: Western states, the UN, and local perceptions in conflict zones

Date
21 Oct 2025
Time
17:00 UK time
Speakers
Stefano Costalli
Where
St Antony's College - North Site, Seminar Room, European Studies Centre, 70 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HR
Series
European Studies Seminar
Organiser contact
Audience
Public
Booking
Not required
This paper examines how populations in conflict zones perceive foreign military interventions, using Mali as a case study. Based on an original survey experiment (N = 1,594), it compares support for interventions led by the UN, ECOWAS, France, and Russia, focusing on how actor identity, perceived effectiveness, and integrity shape preferences. Findings challenge common assumptions: states—especially non-Western ones like Russia—often attract more support than international organizations; effectiveness raises support across all actors; and misconduct erodes approval, particularly for otherwise trusted interveners. The study highlights the importance of local perspectives for understanding legitimacy and warns Western states not to assume preferred-partner status in an era of multipolar competition and declining UN reach.