Open Sources and Theories of Intelligence Analysis

The digital revolution and the development of artificial intelligence are affecting an ever-growing range of fields, and intelligence analysis is no exception. Amid such dynamic changes, reflection is needed to better understand their nature, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both traditional and emerging analytical techniques. One domain that perhaps best captures the current situation is open-source analysis. Depending on the emphasis placed on the key stages of the intelligence (analytical) cycle, we can distinguish the following theoretical approaches to analysis: psychological, formal, and phenomenological. These approaches are complementary in nature. Their applicability depends on the type of sources and the nature of the questions the analyst must address. The history of analytical craft offers numerous examples of both appropriate and flawed approaches to open sources. One of the most compelling cases remains the collapse of the USSR, which illustrates the consequences of failing to grasp the problem—not only by analysts but also (and perhaps above all) by policymakers.

Wojciech Zajączkowski, a graduate of the Catholic University of Lublin, currently serves as Undersecretary of State at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He previously held the posts of Polish ambassador to Bucharest, Moscow, and Beijing. His diplomatic experience also includes assignments in Ukraine and Turkmenistan. Mr. Zajączkowski earned his PhD from the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences and collaborated for an extended period with the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw. His main academic interests include the history of Russia and the USSR, as well as the theory of intelligence analysis. He has published five books and several dozen articles on these subjects.