IN COOPERATION WITH THE DAHRENDORF PROGRAMME
Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended Europe’s security order, exposing vulnerabilities that continue to shape trans-Atlantic strategy. By early 2025, Russia is advancing slowly in Ukraine’s east, while Kyiv faces resource and manpower strains, and U.S. policy under a new Trump administration introduces uncertainty. Neither side has a clear path to achieving its objectives, and prospects for a ceasefire remain slim. Still, U.S. leverage—sanctions capacity, military weight, and alliance leadership—offers a narrow window to test Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. Any sustainable outcome must preserve Ukrainian sovereignty, deter renewed Russian aggression, and incentivize European states to build stronger, more autonomous defence capabilities. At the same time, Western leaders must balance deterrence with diplomacy to reduce risks inherent in an increasingly militarised region. Policy coordination across Washington and European capitals will be decisive: alignment could shape a stable security order, while division risks prolonged conflict and dangerous escalation.