New analysis suggests major shift in UK politics from Labour and Conservatives
A new analysis by DPIR’s Professor of Political Science and British Politics Jane Green and Marta Miori suggests the May local and devolved elections this Thursday could mark a major shift in UK politics, with both Labour and the Conservatives losing support.
Polling shows a fragmented landscape, with multiple parties—such as Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats—competing closely across England, Scotland and Wales. Voter dissatisfaction appears tied to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with both parties’ records in government.
New YouGov data indicates unprecedented voter switching away from the two main parties, though most movement remains within broader left- and right-leaning blocs. This suggests that while the system is fragmenting, it is not becoming politically random. Instead, different regions may begin favouring alternative dominant parties within each bloc.
The upcoming results could resemble a patchwork of winners, raising questions about whether this marks a lasting decline of the traditional two-party system or a temporary surge in protest voting.
