Persistence and Change of the Brexit Realignment: Towards a ‘Tide’ Election or a ‘Tribe’ Election?

Will Brexit still matter in the upcoming general election, and if so, how? The 2019 general election marked a high watermark in the realignment of the electorate around the Leave and Remain sides of the EU referendum. Since then, however, politicians resist talking about Brexit, and new issues and embarrassments for the government have shaped the political agenda: the Covid 19 pandemic, parties in Downing Street, the Liz Truss mini-budget, and the cost-of-living crisis.

Scottish Independence: Have the SNP Missed Their Chance?

Recent news from Scotland suggests the end of an era. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which has dominated politics north of the English border since the 2014 independence referendum, has suffered a chaotic year and now trails Labour in opinion polls for the first time in almost a decade. The next election could well see the same party win a majority of seats in England, Scotland and Wales for the first time since 2005. Does the SNP's decline mean that their dream of independence is over and that the union is now safe?

The Modern Gender Gap comes to Britain: Are Men and Women Drifting Apart in their Politics?

The relationship between gender and political choice is complex. Historically women tended to lean more conservative, whilst men were more left-leaning. In recent elections, however, this gender gap has reversed, bringing Britain more in line with patterns seen in the US and other postindustrial democracies. The emergence of this ‘modern gender gap’ pits increasingly left-liberal leaning young women against their right-leaning young male counterparts. But is this difference durable or transitory? Is it just confined to the younger generations? What is driving these changes?

The Rules of British Democracy under Duress: Has the British Constitution Proved Resilient or in Need of Reform?

The UK constitution appears to lurch from crisis to crisis. The last seven years have seen the UK negotiate Brexit, a global pandemic, threats to the Union, and a series of political crises that saw three Prime Ministers in one year. These events tempt calls for reform. Surely the UK's constitution is more populist than democratic and will remain so without long-lasting constitutional form, perhaps even moving to a codified constitution with strong, legal protections of federalism, democracy, and human rights?

The Politics of Immigration before and after Brexit: Changed Attitudes, Changed Coalitions... Changed Outcomes?

The British political landscape on immigration before Brexit had a number of stable features: the public disliked migration; politicians from both parties tended to accept (if not actively support) higher migration levels than voters preferred; this mismatch generated electoral disruption when the issue rose up the agenda, in particular through mobilisation on the radical right and far right; and this initially intense public scepticism was gradually being eroded by demographic change.

Place-Based Politics: How Will Local Contexts Shape Voters’ Behaviour in the Next Election?

British electoral geography has profoundly changed over the past decades. Place has become central to the language of elections and policy offerings from parties. Political divides have opened up between voters in locations strongly connected to global growth and those that are not. How do place-based factors matter for voting behaviour, and which political attitudes do they operate through?

From Austerity to the Cost-of-Living Crisis: What do Voters Want from Government Spending?

The next UK general election looks set to be fought in a context of economic turmoil not seen in the UK since the 2010 election. However, the public mood toward public spending has dramatically shifted since then. Public services and the cost-of-living are at the forefront of voters’ worries, and majorities say they support increases in public spending even though the tax burden is historically high. How do voters form attitudes on economic policy and assess its trade-offs? What role did Brexit, Covid-19 and the 2022 ‘mini-budget’ play in shifting the grounds of the economic debate?

Samuel Burry

Samuel Burry is a DPhil (PhD) candidate in Politics at Oxford. Prior to Oxford, he completed an MPhil in Political Thought and Intellectual History and a BA in History and Politics at Cambridge, where he graduated with a starred first (first-class honours with distinction) and was awarded the University’s History and Politics Prize for best overall performance.

Aryemis Brown

First Lieutenant Aryemis Brown, United States Space Force, reads the Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations at the University of Oxford. Aryemis was the outstanding military graduate and a distinguished graduate from the United States Air Force Academy where he earned a Bachelor of Science in Legal Studies and Humanities and minors in Religion Studies and Philosophy. While at the Academy, Aryemis commanded the Air Force Cadet Wing as the commander of troops, serving as the highest-ranking cadet, responsible for the leadership and character development of 4,400+ personnel. 

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