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Preventive repression and public opinion in authoritarian regimes:
To manage opposition to their rule, contemporary autocracies use strategies of repression that do not involve the use of violence. This paper studies how strategies of nonviolent repression used in anticipation of dissent, such as protest permit denials, shape how the public evaluates targeted groups. The paper tests arguments with evidence from contemporary Russia. Drawing on evidence from unusually detailed data on protests that succeeded and failed to secure the authorities’ approval, and surveys of public opinion, the paper shows that preventive repression compromises protesters’ ability to generate mass support. The findings also suggest that the effects of preventive repression are contingent on people’s views about the law.
Author: Katerina Tertytchnaya
A loyal base: support for authoritarian regimes in times of crisis
To generate mass support, autocracies provide citizens with material goods. Autocrats also use ideological narratives, media propaganda, and indoctrination in schools to create loyal citizens. This paper studies whether mass support for the norms and values of nondemocratic governments, such as patriotism and support for strongman leadership, helps stabilize authoritarian regimes. To test arguments, the paper relies on online experiments conducted in Turkey. The findings suggest that support for the norms and principles of the regime helps dampen the electoral consequences of poor performance. Autocrats’ ‘core’, or ‘loyal’ supporters help stabilize authoritarian rule. This group of citizens continues to support the authorities, even when their performance falters.
Team: Anja Neundorf, Aykut Ozturk and Johannes Gerschewski
Endogenous popularity: How perceptions of support affect the popularity of authoritarian regimes:
Being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. This paper asks whether the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. Using experimental methods, this paper finds that manipulating information—and thereby perceptions—about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity shapes respondents’ support for him. These findings imply that shaping perceptions—through propaganda, indoctrination, schools, and the media—is an important element of authoritarian popularity and thus stability.
Team: Noah Buckley, Kyle L Marquardt, Ora John Reuter and Katerina Tertytchnaya.