Brian Kot wins Sara Norton Prize for thesis on competition between US and China in AI development

DPIR alumnus Brian Kot (MPhil International Relations, 2023) has won the Sara Norton Prize for 2024-25, for the best essay or study in the field of the political history and institutions of the US.

Brian was awarded the prize for his MPhil thesis entitled ‘Dual-Use Security Dilemma and the US-China AI Technology Race.’

We spoke to Brian about winning and what it means to him and his future studies:

Can you explain in greater detail what your thesis is about?

My thesis explains why the United States and China are competing in artificial intelligence (AI) development by refining the concept of dual-use distinguishability—how easily a state can differentiate between a technology’s military and civilian applications. According to realist IR theory, the less distinguishable a technology is, the more likely states are to adopt competitive measures to safeguard themselves against potential military threats.  

While existing literature tends to emphasise technical features that obscure a technology’s end use, my contribution lies in highlighting the role of political economy in shaping perceptions of distinguishability. Specifically, I argue that in a given state, the more subordinate private firms are to the state, and the more integrated the civilian and military sectors are, the more likely its dual-use technologies will be perceived as vulnerable to diversion for military purposes. Drawing on a case study of China’s political economy and US trade policy toward China, I find that variations in Chinese distinguishability have shaped US threat perceptions and export control strategies since the 1990s.

How was it developed? 

When I used to work in foreign policy think tanks in Washington DC, there was a major turning point in the United States’s technology trade policy toward China, as the US dramatically expanded its restriction over technology flow to China. I became curious about the underlying logic of these US policies—were they driven by sound strategic reasoning, or something else? That curiosity inspired me to dedicate my MPhil research to exploring the strategic rationale behind the US export controls.

I initially struggled to formulate the right research design, as the US-China tech relationship was—and still is—rapidly evolving. Moreover, my topic did not readily lend itself to a research puzzle, which our instructors encouraged. Throughout my first year, I tried out different iterations of research design, but none of them really resonated. 
It wasn’t until the start of my second year that I found my voice, when I decided to follow my intuition and focus on a more theoretical and historical approach. This helped insulate the project from fast-moving current events that might invalidate a narrower empirical focus. Once I clarified the research approach, everything else followed.

How do you feel to have won the prize?

I feel incredibly grateful to those who have supported me along the way and to Oxford’s vibrant intellectual community, which provided an excellent space for young scholars like myself to engage with technology and policy issues. The events organised by DPIR, the Changing Character of War Centre, Oxford Technology & Security Nexus, the Oxford China Centre, and the Oxford China Policy Lab greatly enriched my thinking and provided a lot of inspiration for my thesis.

What does this mean to you and your future studies?

I’m honoured to receive this prize. The thesis was an opportunity to push my intellectual boundaries, and I’m excited to carry the skills and insights from this project into the next stage of my career. I remain deeply interested in topics of dual-use technology and strategic competition, and I look forward to continuing this work in both research and policy settings.

What are you currently working on?

As part of an independent research project, I am currently exploring the strategic and military implications of China’s economic model, particularly its emphasis on supply-side drivers such as investment spending and technological upgrading. I am interested in understanding how China’s industrial and technological capacity shapes its military readiness, especially in the context of a potential conflict over Taiwan.