Marnie Howlett publishes new article exploring Ukrainian public opinion on resistance against Russia

Do Ukrainians continue to oppose political and territorial concessions to Russia as found in July 2022? Or have their attitudes changed given the rising costs of resistance against Russia? 

DPIR’s Dr Marnie Howlett, Lecturer in Russian and East European Politics, has had an article published in the Journal of Peace Research with co-authors Janina Dill (Blavatnik School of Government) and Carl Müller-Crepon (London School of Economics) in which they analyse this question.

In ‘Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost?’, the authors explore the views of Ukrainians in 2025 on their country’s political autonomy and territorial integrity as a comparison with their previous findings in 2022. 

Drawing on original surveys conducted in-person in Ukraine, the paper highlights that Ukrainians still categorically prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost, even despite the uncertain benefits and the mounting costs of the war.

We caught up with Marnie to ask her more about the article and her work: 

Can you explain in a bit more detail what the article is about?

Between 6 December 2024 and 9 January 2025, my colleagues and I re-ran the same and a slightly modified survey experiment that we ran in July 2022 to understand whether Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions to Russia. We found small changes in Ukrainian public opinion, including less resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory, with ethnic Ukrainians and less war-affected citizens comparatively more willing to resist Russia’s aggression than other respondents. Still, two and a half years after our original study, we found that Ukrainians are still united behind resistance to Russia, remarkably insensitive to the costs of self-defense, and unwilling to concede territory and political autonomy.

What research methods did you use to write the article?

We surveyed 2,580 citizens across non-occupied regions of Ukraine using two conjoint survey experiments — one was a replication of our original study in July 2022 and the second included stronger cost treatments. The respondents were sampled from largely the same locations as in 2022 in government-controlled regions of Ukraine.  

Can you explain the importance of your findings?

The study helps us better understand how the attitudes of war-affected populations evolve over time and sheds critical light on public support for a political settlement in Ukraine. Our findings also elevate Ukrainians’ views amidst Russia’s continued aggression, which is particularly important right now as efforts to end the war are ongoing and since February 2026 will mark the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion. 

What are you currently working on?

I am currently working on several projects about the Russia-Ukraine war. One of these projects is my second book, which examines why ordinary people take up arms in times of conflict. The monograph draws on 201 original interviews with Ukrainian citizens who had no prior military training or experience, yet, immediately volunteered to defend Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. This study empirically contributes one of the most comprehensive interview-based datasets on Ukrainian combatants to date, and theoretically advances political science debates around sovereignty, nationalism, and mobilisation in modern warfare.