Hybrid warfare in and around Ukraine has confronted Europe with a paradigm shift regarding security and defense since at least 2014. It began to dawn on Europe, that in an extreme case, existing military defense- and deterrence-postures might even be bypassed through hybrid strategies in a ‘downward or horizontal escalation mode’. With Russia's large-scale military invasion of Ukraine, the war entered a new, militarily escalating but no less hybrid phase. European countries in support of Ukraine incrementally came under hybrid attack.

At a time when we face unparalleled security dilemmas and technology is evolving at a pace where we are challenged to keep up, Defence has been struggling with how to innovate successfully and deliver novel technologies into the hands of the end user at scale.  This seminar will examine from both a theoretical and practical perspective, how that might be achieved, taking lessons from recent conflict and the civilian sector.

The story of Black Hawk Down is a familiar one. On 3 October 1993 two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down, and in the ensuing Battle of Mogadishu eighteen Americans and hundreds of Somalis were killed. But very few appreciate that this was just one day in a two-and-a-half-year operation; the most ambitious attempt in history to rebuild a nation.

Following a recent simulation of a scenario where there was a ‘failure of deterrence’, Rob Johnson examines the implications of recent geopolitical developments, asking how accurate our analyses are. He examines the challenges of critical evaluation in this period of change in the international situation and how urgent it is for scholars to develop a better understanding of escalation, deterrence, and coercion.

How does Europe plan to defend itself amidst constrained resources and geopolitical uncertainty? This presentation explores the fundamental role of the European Defense Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB) in providing materiel for a sustainable and credible deterrent, analyzing its status and challenges, assessing initiatives in progress, and providing potential options for policymakers.

China Centre Book Talk: Institutional Genes: The Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism
by Chenggang Xu (Cambridge University Press, 2025)

This book explores the origins and evolution of China’s institutions and communist totalitarianism in general. Contemporary China's fundamental institution is communist totalitarianism. Introducing the concept of Institutional Genes (IGs), the book examines how the IGs of Soviet Russia merged with those of the Chinese imperial system, creating a durable totalitarian regime with Chinese characteristics.