Transitional Leadership Insights from Afghanistan: Dr. Sima Samar

Transitional Leadership Insights from Afghanistan: Dr. Sima Samar,
State Minister for Human Rights and International Affairs; former Chairperson of the Independent Afghan Human Rights Commission; Vice President of the Interim Administration and Minister of Women’s Affairs in 2001-2002, during which she established Afghanistan’s first Ministry of Women’s Affairs.

The Political Consequences of Criminal Violence: Applying MRP to Mexican Survey Data

How does exposure to violence shape political behavior? Does criminal violence push citizens to participate more or less in politics? These questions are becoming more and more important as crime rates rise in many parts of the developing world, but especially in Latin America. We argue that exposure to criminal violence, rather than generating anger or fear, perpetuates political cynicism. As crime increases, citizens update their perceptions of the state's capacity and willingness to protect them -- reducing the stakes of political competition.

Insuring Against Hunger? Long-Term Political Consequences of Exposures to the Dutch Famine

Malnutrition is one of the greatest global challenges affecting more than 900 million individuals in developing and developed countries across the world. While previous studies have established that malnutrition has serious and lasting negative consequences on individuals' health, education, and labor market outcomes, very little is known about its effects on individuals' political views later in life.

Placebo Tests for Casual Inference

Estimates of treatment effects using observational data can be biased due to confounding, model misspecification, and other reasons. A placebo test offers a complementary diagnostic for evaluating these threats to inference by checking for a relationship that should be found in the data if the main estimates were biased, but should be absent otherwise. Drawing on a comprehensive survey of recent empirical work in political science, this paper defines placebo tests, introduces a typology of tests, and analyzes what makes them informative (both in ideal and non-ideal circumstances).
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