Defying normative expectations, incentives inherent to democratic politics can allow violence to persist within contested and participatory regimes. Extending the criminal governance rationale, we investigate how democratic politics and institutions shape violence by organized criminal groups (OCGs). We outline eight hypotheses linking electoral competition, participation, mayoral alternation, budgetary allocation, local council size, and mayoral re-election to variations in criminal violence.

As conflicts grow more complex, can AI become a game-changer in peacemaking? This panel explores how AI-powered tools can assist

in de-escalation, track early warning signs and enhance mediation efforts. From predictive analytics to digital diplomacy, the Panellists

will discuss AI’s role in shaping more effective, data-driven peace processes. What are the ethical, practical and strategic implications

of integrating AI into conflict resolution, and how can we ensure it serves as a force for stability rather than division?

In recent years, Japan has won World Heritage status for four industrial sites: the Iwami silver mine, the Tomioka silk filature, the cluster of Meiji Era Industrial Revolution sites of coal mining, ship building, and iron and steel production, and the Sado Island gold mines. In this talk Professor Gordon will examine a portion of Japan’s modern industrial heritage that has not been officially recognized: the monuments memorializing wartime foreign laborers brought to Japan under varying degrees of coercion between 1939 and 1945. These monuments are “dark” in three ways.

The mainstream narrative in the West posits that Donald Trump has upended the 'rules-based international order'. However, a transition in the international order was already in full swing long before Trump came to office, driven by an increasingly multi-polar balance of power and a series of actions that revealed the hypocrisy of Western foreign policy — both developments that called into question the legitimacy of Western leadership in the world.

OCPSG is organizing a workshop 'Synthetic Agents for Social Science' with Emma Madden from the Department of Politics and International Relations. This two-hour workshop will examine the role of the social science research applications of AI‑driven generative agents: virtual “participants” that can mimic survey respondents, simulate how opinions spread, and preview policy messages. The workshop will surface the core assumptions behind these tools and explore methods for checking their outputs against real data.

OCPSG is pleased to announce its inaugural speaker event 'Generative AI for Predictive and Causal Inference' featuring Professor Kosuke Imai from the Department of Government and the Department of Statistics at Harvard University. He is currently a CESS/Politics Academic Visitor at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. Professor Imai specializes in statistical and machine learning methods within the social sciences, particularly focusing on causal inference, computational social science, program evaluation, and survey methodology.

Join us to hear Dr Joel Ng, Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, discuss 'Prospects for Multilateralism at the End of the Liberal Order'.

Presentation and Panel Discussion on recently published research: Christine Cheng and Chris Day (2024). 'Research Ethics and the Study of Armed Actors', Special Issue of Conflict, Security & Development, 24(6), 501-779. With Dr Christine Cheng (KCL), Gloriana Rodriguez Alvarez (KCL), Niloufer Siddiqui (SUNY- Albany), and Dr Ibrahim Bangura (University of Sierra Leone; AfOx Visiting Fellow, Oxford). Chair: Professor John Gledhill (University of Oxford).

A drinks reception will follow the panel discussion.

Dr Christine Cheng, Department of War Studies, King's College London; Dr Ibrahim Bangura; Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone; Dr John Gledhill, Oxford Department of International Development and more will discuss 'Research Ethics and the Study of Armed Actors'.

More information to follow.

Drinks reception to follow the panel discussion.