I am the Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre; Co-Director of the British Election Study; President of the British Politics Group of the American Political Science Association; Elections Analyst for ITV News' twice BAFTA nominated live election results programmes; winner of the 2015 Political Studies Association ‘Research Communicator of the Year’; a Senior Fellow at the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences.
My research focuses on:
- Political behaviour
- Electoral accountability
- British voters and elections
- Policy impacts, local and national
- Survey measurement
- Understanding long-term political change
My research is primarily concerned with assessing the relationship between policy and performance and political attitudes and vote choice.
One of the main contributions is showing how political actors and mass publics respond to external events and shocks. My co-authored book, with Will Jennings (The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters, CUP, 2017) argues that shocks cause substantial changes to party policy reputations, voters generalise competence assessments across the policy agenda, and governments suffer costs of ruling due to predictable over-time dynamics in the attribution of blame.
My new co-authored book with the British Election Study team (Electoral Shocks: Understanding the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World, OUP), explains how the British party system is destabilizing due to the combination of electoral shocks and over time increases in underlying electoral volatility.
On the MPhil degree, I teach 'The Politics and Government of a Major State: The United Kingdom'. On the undergraduate PPE degree I contribute to teaching of the third-year option 'Modern British Government and Politics'.
Daniel Hatem (2018 to present): “The Political Centre”
Previous Posts Held
Formerly, Professor of Political Science (2013-2018), Cathy Marsh Institute and Politics Department, University of Manchester.
I was a visiting Professor at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University, 2016, and a Visiting Scholar at the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science, University of California at Berkeley, 2007.
- Green, J, (2020) 'Electoral Shocks: Understanding the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World'
- Green, J, Jennings, W, (2018) 'The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters'
- Prosser, C, Fieldhouse, E, Green, J, Mellon, J, Evans, G, (2020) 'Tremors but no Youthquake: Measuring changes in the age and turnout gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British general elections', ELECTORAL STUDIES, vol. 64
- Green, J, Shorrocks, R, (2019) 'The Gender Backlash in the Vote for Brexit'
- Mellon, J, Evans, G, Fieldhouse, E, Green, J, Prosser, C, (2018) 'Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election', PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS, vol. 71 (4) p719-737
- Mellon, J, Evans, G, Fieldhouse, EA, Green, J, Prosser, C, (2018) 'Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured'
- Fisher, S, Sturgis, P, Kuha, J, Lauderdale, B, Baker, N, Callegaro, M, Green, J, Jennings, W, (2017) 'An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK General Election opinion polls', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A
- Green, J, Jennings, W, (2017) 'Party reputations and policy priorities: how issue ownership shapes executive and legislative agendas', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 49 (2) p443-466
- Green, J, (2015) 'Party and voter incentives at the crowded centre of British politics', PARTY POLITICS, vol. 21 (1) p80-99
- Adams, J, Green, J, Milazzo, C, (2012) 'Who moves? Elite and mass-level depolarization in Britain, 1987-2001', ELECTORAL STUDIES, vol. 31 (4) p643-655
- Green, J, Jennings, W, (2012) 'The dynamics of issue competence and vote for parties in and out of power: An analysis of valence in Britain, 1979-1997', EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, vol. 51 (4) p469-503
Selected professional activities
I am President of the British Politics Group of the American Political Science Association, an Editorial Board Member for Comparative Political Studies.
I am also a panel member of the Sub-Committee on Disclosure, British Polling Council, and I serve on the Advisory Boards of the World Values Survey (UK, PI: Bobby Duffy), MOBILISE (PI Olga Onuch), the Representative Audit of Britain (PI: Campbell, Hudson-Heerde, Rudig), and the Thatcherism and Crime Study (PI: Farrell).
I was formerly a member of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society Independent Inquiry into the 2015 opinion polls.
I have provided on-screen commentary and analysis on the following subjects to national and international broadcasters:
- Public opinion in the UK
- Elections (UK, US)
- British politics